Luxury SUV · Gas · AWD
2026 BMW X5
xDrive40i · $86,000 MSRP + $2,100 freight & PDI · prices and taxes shown for Ontario
$1,386
$1,227 + 13% HST
$43,860
51.0% of MSRP · 48 months
$44,410source
At 20,000 km/yr · $0 vs the 20,000 km baseline · confidence medium
+$622
Cash out, or apply it to your next lease (and skip the tax on it)
Where the money goes
- Price after discount and incentives
- $88,100
- Less cash down and trade equity
- $88,100
- Interest rate used
- 5.5%
- Total of payments
- $66,543
- Tax saved by applying your trade
- $0
- Over-kilometre bill at 20,000 km/yr
- $0
- True cost per month after equity
- $1,373
How well it holds value
3.9 / 5
Average value retention
Value kept after four years
70.0%source
at 20,000 km a year — that is $60,200 of the original $86,000 sticker price. The Canadian four-year average across all brands is about 67.5%.
Award record: Canadian Black Book 2025 Best Retained Value — top brand winner. See the published list
Strong brand demand, high excess-km rate.
How we work out the projected market value
Projected market value is what we expect the car to be worth on the open market at the end of your 48-month lease — not the buyout price written into the contract. The gap between those two numbers is your equity.
The sum: $86,000 sticker price × 51.6% expected retention = $44,410 at the standard 20,000 km a year, then $0 for driving 20,000 km a year = $44,410. Your contract buyout is $43,860, leaving $550 in your favour.
Mileage rule: a used car loses roughly half of what the lease company charges per extra kilometre, so we apply $0 of value per kilometre above or below the 20,000 km baseline (BMW charges $0 per excess km), capped at 12% of sticker either way.
Checked against real listings: each week we read what this same nameplate, roughly three model years old, is actually being advertised for on Canadian used-car listings. We take the middle price (trimming the cheapest and dearest tenth so one wreck or one loaded trim cannot swing it), cut 12% off it because a dealer never hands you the retail asking price on a trade, and turn that into the share of the original sticker the car kept. That real figure is blended with the award-anchored projection — up to 65% weight when there are plenty of listings, 35% when the sample is thin, and none at all when fewer than four cars are for sale.
Where the retention figure comes from: a term-by-term forecast for this model, built from how the nameplate resells in Canada and its brand record in the published retained-value awards — Canadian Black Book Best Retained Value and J.D. Power / ALG Canada. Confidence on this one is medium. Where no model-specific forecast exists we fall back to the contract buyout percentage, which shows zero equity rather than a guess.
Resale prices move with the used-car market, condition and options. Treat this as a well-informed estimate, not a guarantee.
Handing the keys back
How easy BMW makes it to walk away at the end of the lease. 5 means relaxed, 1 means every scuff gets billed.
$1,500 of wear written off
Scratches, curbed wheels and small dents are the most common surprise bill. Brands that forgive a dollar amount absorb most of it for you.
20¢ per km over your allowance
Driving 5,000 km over on a four-year lease costs about $1,000 at this rate.
10¢ upfront vs 20¢ after the fact
A real discount for buying kilometres in advance gives you a cheap way out if you know you drive a lot.
$595 return fee
This is charged even on a spotless car, though most brands waive it if you lease from them again.
Adding those four up gives 2.6. We then adjust by +1.5 for how this brand actually behaves at return time — how picky the inspection is and how often bills get waived — which lands on 4.1.
Generous $1,500 wear waiver but high excess-km rate.
Loyalty credit on re-lease.
Estimated for Ontario
13% HST- Sales tax on your payments (13% HST)
- $7,655
- Licence plate & registrationPlate transfer or new issue
- $59
- Tire stewardship levyCharged on the four tires
- $20
- Dealer documentation feeTypical Ontario dealer admin fee
- $599
- One-time costs at delivery
- $756
- Cash needed on delivery day
- $756
- All-in cost over the whole term
- $67,299
- True cost per month after equity
- $1,389
Province details — how these numbers were worked out
Sales tax rate: 13.00% (13% HST)
One-time costs at delivery: $756
- Licence plate & registration: $59 — Plate transfer or new issue
- Tire stewardship levy: $20 — Charged on the four tires
- Dealer documentation fee: $599 — Typical Ontario dealer admin fee (sales tax applies, so 13.00% is added)
Cash on delivery day: $756
All-in cost: $67,299
Fees and rebates are current best estimates for Ontario and can change; confirm the exact amounts with your dealer before you sign.
No provincial purchase rebate is currently offered here.
| Length | Km / year | Buyout % | Factory rate | Typical quote | Monthly (tax in) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 months | 16,000 | 66.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | $1,820 |
| 24 months | 20,000 | 64.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | $1,897 |
| 24 months | 24,000 | 62.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | $1,974 |
| 36 months | 16,000 | 61.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | $1,442 |
| 36 months | 20,000 | 58.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | $1,544 |
| 36 months | 24,000 | 56.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | $1,594 |
| 48 months | 16,000 | 53.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | $1,350 |
| 48 months | 20,000 | 51.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | $1,386 |
| 48 months | 24,000 | 49.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | $1,422 |
| 60 months | 16,000 | 44.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% | $1,290 |
| 60 months | 20,000 | 42.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% | $1,318 |
| 60 months | 24,000 | 40.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% | $1,346 |
| 72 months | 16,000 | 37.5% | 4.3% | 6.0% | $1,219 |
| 72 months | 20,000 | 35.5% | 4.3% | 6.0% | $1,241 |
| 72 months | 24,000 | 33.5% | 4.3% | 6.0% | $1,264 |
| 84 months | 16,000 | 31.0% | 4.6% | 6.3% | $1,167 |
| 84 months | 20,000 | 29.0% | 4.6% | 6.3% | $1,185 |
| 84 months | 24,000 | 27.0% | 4.6% | 6.3% | $1,203 |
| 96 months | 16,000 | 24.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | $1,126 |
| 96 months | 20,000 | 22.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | $1,141 |
| 96 months | 24,000 | 20.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | $1,156 |
For your research, not a quote. Every figure here is an independent estimate built from published manufacturer programs, provincial tax rules and retained-value award data. We are not a dealer, lender or broker, we are not paid to steer you toward any vehicle or brand, and nothing on this site is financial, tax or legal advice. Confirm the final numbers on your own lease worksheet before you sign. Full terms and disclaimer